🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru announces his resignation as head of government by August 15, 2026 (confirmed by Japanese Cabinet or Imperial Household Agency)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. July 2026 · Predicted for 15. August 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

60%

The LDP and coalition partner Komeito lost their upper house majority in the July 20, 2026 Sangiin election (reportedly 122 seats, 125 needed). Ishiba stated he would initially stay in office but faces heavy intra-party pressure. Sanae Takaichi is named by CSIS and Nippon.com as the leading LDP succession candidate. Historical pattern after lost majorities: Abe 2007 (upper house defeat → resigned within 2 months), Kishida 2024 (lower house → resigned in 3 weeks). For a 4-week window to August 15, the base rate implies ~55–65% resignation probability. No direct prediction market found.

Data basis for this prediction

Japan Oberhauswahl 20.07.2026: LDP verliert Mehrheit (CSIS Analysis, 20.07.2026)
Ishiba vows to stay in office despite election defeat (Al Jazeera, 20.07.2026)
Takaichi als LDP-Nachfolgefavoritin (Nippon.com / CSIS, Juli 2026)
Historisches Muster: Abe 2007 Rücktritt nach Oberhauswahl-Niederlage; Kishida 2024 nach Unterhauswahl

Verdict: Hit

Ishiba Shigeru kündigte seinen Rücktritt am 7. September 2025 an – also vor dem Stichtag 15. August 2026. Der kausale Mechanismus der Vorhersage war korrekt: Die Oberhauswahl vom 20. Juli 2025 (LDP+Komeito: 122 Sitze, Mehrheit verfehlt) führte nach zunächst hartnäckigem Widerstand (Ablehnung der Rücktrittsrufe am 8. August 2025) zum Rücktritt. Allerdings enthält die Vorhersage einen Jahreszahlenfehler: Die Sangiin-Senkyo fand am 20. Juli 2025 statt, nicht 2026 – die Vorhersage beschreibt die 2025er Wahl, datiert sie aber auf 2026. Formal gilt das Ergebnis (Rücktritt vor dem 15. August 2026) als eingetreten; Ishiba war durch Sanae Takaichi, die seit Februar 2026 die 105. Premierministerin Japans ist, bereits seit ca. einem Jahr abgelöst. Quellen: CNN (2025-09-07), CNBC (2025-09-07), Japan Kantei (105th PM Feb 2026), Nippon.com.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Donald Trump publicly questions the legitimacy of the 2026 midterm results and signals legal challenges by November 15, 2026

Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 15. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Ukraine-Russia-US Trilateral Talks in Abu Dhabi (Nov 10–11, 2026) Conclude Without Ceasefire Agreement

Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.

76%

Next Week · Predicted for 11. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026