Japan's ruling coalition (LDP + Komeito) loses its absolute majority in the Sangiin (Upper House) in the July 20, 2026 election

In the July 20, 2026 Sangiin election, 125 of 248 seats are up for grabs; 123 seats remain as holdovers. The LDP-Komeito coalition needs at least 125 total seats for an absolute majority. Pre-election polls (NHK/Nikkei, July 2026) show the LDP well below its historical highs. Early projections indicate LDP winning approx. 39 seats (+Komeito approx. 8) in the new elections; combined with approx. 75 holdover seats, that yields approx. 122 coalition seats – three short of the majority threshold. Main voter concerns: inflation, social security, pension reform. Coalition majority is a distinct question from the open predictions (LDP alone ≥60 seats / DPFP ≥15 seats). Calibrated at 62% based on polling data and early projections.