James Talarico (Democrats) wins the US Senate seat in Texas against Ken Paxton (Republicans) — US Midterm Elections 3 November 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by 4 November 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. November 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket sees a 74–76% probability for a Talarico win (as of Election Day, 3 November 2026). RealClearPolling average shows Talarico +2.5 points; NYT/Siena (Oct 27–Nov 1) shows +7. Kalshi: 73% Talarico. Would be the first Democratic win of a Texas Senate seat since 1994. Calibrated to 73%: Polymarket median slightly adjusted downward given Texas's historical R+10 to R+15 lean and residual upset risk. A prior Cassandra prediction was marked a MISS due to naming the wrong opponent (Cornyn instead of Paxton) — the correct matchup is captured here for the first time.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Talarico 74–76% vs. Paxton 24–26%, Texas Senate 2026 (3. Nov 2026, Wahltag)
- Kalshi: Talarico 73%, Texas Senate — signifikant über historischem Texas-Basiswert (3. Nov 2026)
- RealClearPolling: Talarico +2,5 Punkte RCP-Schnitt; NYT/Siena +7 (27. Okt–1. Nov 2026)
- OddsChecker.com: Talarico vs. Paxton Texas Senate — Marktbewegung September–November (2. Nov 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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