🏛️ Politics
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Israeli Knesset Election (October 27, 2026): Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot) wins at least 22 Knesset seats (out of 120) (confirmed by the Central Elections Committee of Israel or Reuters by October 28, 2026)
Probability
62%
The mid-September 2026 polling average (5 polls: Haaretz, Jerusalem Post, Channel 13, i24News, Direct Polls) shows Yashar at ~23.6 seats vs. Likud (Netanyahu) at ~21.8 seats. Channel 13 shows Yashar 22, Likud 19; i24News/Direct Polls shows Likud 27, Yashar 22. Both blocs (center-left ~53, right-wing ~52, latest Channel 13 poll) are nearly tied. No direct Polymarket listing for Yashar found. As the polling average sits above the 22-seat mark and Israeli swing voters in uncertain security environments traditionally lean toward centrist parties, Yashar is estimated at ~62% probability to reach at least 22 seats.
Data basis for this prediction
- Jerusalem Post: Yashar 22–24 Sitze, Likud 19–22 Sitze (Umfragen-Aggregat Sep 2026)
- Haaretz: Channel-13-Umfrage — Yashar 22, Likud 19 Sitze (Aug/Sep 2026)
- i24NEWS/Direct Polls: Likud 27, Yashar 22 Sitze (Sep 2026)
- Britannica: 2026 Israeli Elections — Blöcke nahezu gleich stark (Stand: Sep 2026)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Alle drei Exit-Poll-Sender (Kan: 22, Channel 12: 23, Channel 13: 22) zeigen Yashar bei mindestens 22 Sitzen. Schwelle von 22 Mandaten erreicht oder übertroffen. Quelle: Exit Polls Kan/Channel 12/13.