🏛️ Politics
· Next Month
Israeli Knesset Election (October 27, 2026): Netanyahu-led right-wing bloc (Likud, Shas, UTJ, and national-religious parties) falls short of 61 out of 120 Knesset seats (confirmed by Central Elections Committee of Israel or Reuters by October 28, 2026)
Probability
70%
Current Israeli polls (JPost, Channel 12/13, Israel2026.co.il, as of September 2026) place the pro-Netanyahu bloc at roughly 52–54 seats — eight to nine short of the 61-seat majority threshold. The opposition (Eisenkot's Yashar, Yesh Atid, Avoda, etc.) also stands at ~53 seats. Polymarket sees Netanyahu as the next PM at only 28–29%, implying a ~71% probability that his bloc falls below 61 seats. Additional headwinds: his ongoing corruption trial, widespread war fatigue, and three new small right-wing parties hovering at the 3.25% electoral threshold — if they fail to enter the Knesset, their votes net-benefit the opposition. This forecast is consistent with the existing open prediction that Gadi Eisenkot (Yashar) becomes Prime Minister.
Data basis for this prediction
- JPost: 'Israeli Polls Split on 2026 Knesset' – Netanyahu-Block ~52–54 Sitze (September 2026)
- Israel2026.co.il: Wahlumfragen-Übersicht – Netanyahu-Block 52–54 Sitze (Stand September 2026)
- Polymarket: Netanyahu als nächster Premierminister Israels 28–29 % (Stand 13. September 2026)
- Times of Israel: 'Election polls show continued deadlock after party slates finalized' (September 2026)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Exit-Poll (Yahoo News: 'Israel exit polls give Netanyahu edge but short of majority') zeigt Netanyahu-Block bei ca. 59 Sitzen — zwei unter der Mehrheitsschwelle von 61. Quelle: Yahoo News Exit Poll, Haaretz.