🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Israel: No new coalition government receives Knesset confidence vote by December 31, 2026 — post-October election government formation fails (confirmed by Times of Israel or AP by January 1, 2027)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 9. November 2026 · Predicted for 31. December 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

55%

Polymarket assigns only 41% probability to a new Israeli government by December 31, 2026 — and just 12% by November 30 (as of November 9, 2026), implying a 59% market probability that government formation fails by year-end. Background: coalition negotiations following the October 2026 elections are deadlocked, with ultra-orthodox parties (Agudat Israel, Degel HaTorah) and right-wing nationalist factions making irreconcilable demands on military draft exemptions and budget priorities. Israel required multiple election cycles in 2019–2022 before achieving a stable government. Own estimate: 55% probability of failure (more conservative than Polymarket's implied 59%, as surprise compromises remain possible).

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: 41% neue israelische Regierung bis 31.12.2026; 12% bis 30.11.2026 (Stand 9.11.2026)
Polymarket: Israel-Regierungsbildungsmärkte, Kategorie Politics/Middle East (Stand 9.11.2026)
Times of Israel: Koalitionsverhandlungen nach Oktober-Wahlen 2026 — ultra-orthodoxe Parteien blockieren (Nov 2026)
Metaculus: Israel neue Regierung bis Q1 2027 — Community-Forecast (Stand Nov 2026)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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