ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Services) September 2026 exceeds 54.0 points (ISM release October 5, 2026, confirmed via ISM or Bloomberg by October 5, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. September 2026
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Predicted for 5. October 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The US ISM Services PMI for September 2026 will exceed 54.0 points when published on October 5, 2026. Data: August 2026 = 55.4 (well above consensus of 54.3), May 2026 = 54.5; 12-month rolling average near 53.7. Three consecutive months above 54 indicate structural strength in the services sector, underpinned by robust US consumer spending and a resilient labor market (NFP August +162K, unemployment rate 4.1%). Polymarket is running an active market for ISM Services PMI September 2026 (as of September 23, 2026, $16,354 traded); implied bets cluster in the 54–57 range. Threshold note: 54.0 is 1.4 points below August and 0.3 above the 12-month average. Risk: back-to-school moderation, softening order inputs, or inflation-driven cost pressures could push the PMI below 54.
Data basis for this prediction
- ISM Report on Business: Services PMI August 2026 = 55,4 Punkte (über Konsens 54,3) (ISM, 04.09.2026)
- ISM Report on Business: Services PMI Mai 2026 = 54,5 Punkte (PR Newswire, 03.06.2026)
- Polymarket: Aktiver Markt ISM Services PMI September 2026, $16.354 Handelsvolumen (Stand 23.09.2026)
- BLS: US NFP August 2026 +162.000, Unemployment Rate 4,1 % (05.09.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Der ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Services) für September 2026 wurde am 5. Oktober 2026 mit 54,9 Punkten veröffentlicht – und übertraf damit die Schwelle von 54,0 klar. Der Wert lag zwar unter dem August-Wert (55,4) und verfehlte die Konsensschätzung von ca. 55,1–55,2, erfüllte aber die Bedingung der Vorhersage (>54,0) eindeutig. Quellen: ISM/PR Newswire via Morningstar (https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-newswire/20261005la62389/services-pmi-at-549-september-2026-ism-services-pmi-report), FXStreet (https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ism-services-pmi-expected-to-show-robust-us-economy-in-september-202610050900), CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/10/05/ism-non-manufacturing-pmi-misses-expectations-by-0-point-1.html).
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