⚽ Sports · Tomorrow

Isaac del Toro loses more than 1:20 minutes to Remco Evenepoel in Tour de France Stage 16 ITT (July 21, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. July 2026 · Predicted for 21. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

60%

After Vingegaard's crash and DNF in Stage 15, Remco Evenepoel sits 2nd overall (–5:00 behind Pogačar); Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates, 22) follows 3rd at –5:58 – 58 seconds behind Evenepoel on GC. Tomorrow's 26.1 km ITT from Évian-les-Bains to Thonon-les-Bains strongly favours Evenepoel (multi-time ITT world and Olympic champion). Del Toro is a pure climber with no established TT pedigree. Historically, pure climbers concede 1:20–2:30 minutes to top TT specialists over this distance. No direct prediction market; probability derived from performance-profile differentials and historical TdF ITT time splits.

Data basis for this prediction

Cyclingnews GC Standings nach Etappe 15 (19. Juli 2026): Pogačar 1., Evenepoel 2. (–5:00), del Toro 3. (–5:58)
The National News (19. Juli 2026): Vingegaard DNF Stage 15, Schlüsselbeinfraktur bestätigt
FloBikes Stage-15-Ergebnis (19. Juli 2026): Evenepoel gewinnt Etappe 15
olympics.com TdF-Vorschau: Etappe 16 ITT Évian–Thonon, 26,1 km, 21. Juli 2026

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Isaac del Toro belegte Platz 3 in Etappe 16 ITT mit nur ~34 Sekunden Rückstand auf Evenepoel (6 s hinter Pogačar, der 28 s hinter Evenepoel lag) – weit unter dem prognostizierten Rückstand von über 1:20 min. Quellen: ProCyclingStats, Cyclinguptodate.com

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