Monday, 9. November 2026 · Next update: 10:00 DE EN Log in
Cassandra.news
Tomorrow's news. Today.
🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Iran: Assembly of Experts (Majles-e Khobregan) officially designates a new Supreme Leader by 15 August 2026 (confirmed by IRNA or official Iranian state announcement)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 15. August 2026 · Based on: Speculative
Probability
50%

Ali Khamenei was killed on 28 February 2026 in a joint US-Israeli airstrike (confirmed by Al Jazeera, NPR, Iran International). His state funeral took place on 3 July 2026 after delays caused by ongoing hostilities. This means the supreme leadership post has formally been vacant for over 4.5 months. The Iran-US MoU of June 14, 2026 demonstrates that a provisional decision-making structure exists; formal legitimization by the Assembly of Experts remains pending. Historically, Khomeini's successor was named within a day in 1989. Leading candidates: Mojtaba Khamenei, Sadegh Larijani, Ahmad Jannati. Geopolitical pressure (Iran-US talks, revolutionary legitimacy) raises institutional urgency for formalization.

Data basis for this prediction
  • Al Jazeera 28. Februar 2026: Khamenei bei US-israelischem Luftangriff getötet
  • NPR / Iran International März 2026: Irans Staatsbeerdigung verzögert bis 3. Juli 2026
  • Al Jazeera 10. Juli 2026: Iran-USA-Gespräche stocken nach Khamenei-Staatsbeerdigung
Verdict: Hit
Der Expertenrat (Majles-e Khobregan) hat Mojtaba Khamenei am 8./9. März 2026 offiziell zum neuen Obersten Führer ernannt – weit vor der Frist 15. August 2026. Die Ernennung erfolgte damit nicht nach monatelangem Vakuum (wie in der Vorhersage-Begründung angenommen), sondern bereits ca. 8–9 Tage nach dem Tod Ali Khameneis. Die Vorhersage trifft inhaltlich zu (Mojtaba Khamenei war korrekt als Hauptkandidat benannt, die formelle Bestätigung durch den Expertenrat fand statt und wurde u.a. von IRNA, Al Jazeera, NPR und Iran International gemeldet), jedoch war die Begründung über ein 'Vakuum von über 4,5 Monaten' sachlich falsch. Quellen: [Iran International](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603030390), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/8/iran-names-khameneis-son-as-new-supreme-leader-after-fathers-killing-2), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2026/03/08/nx-s1-5741654/israel-iran-oil-ayatollah-successor), [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iranian_supreme_leader_election).
Related Predictions
🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Donald Trump publicly questions the legitimacy of the 2026 midterm results and signals legal challenges by November 15, 2026

Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).

72%
Next Week · Predicted for 15. Nov 2026
🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Ukraine-Russia-US Trilateral Talks in Abu Dhabi (Nov 10–11, 2026) Conclude Without Ceasefire Agreement

Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.

76%
Next Week · Predicted for 11. Nov 2026
🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%
Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026