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🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Iran: Assembly of Experts (Majles-e Khobregan) officially designates a new Supreme Leader by 15 August 2026 (confirmed by IRNA or official Iranian state announcement)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 21. July 2026 · Predicted for 15. August 2026 · Based on: Speculative
Probability
50%

Ali Khamenei was killed on 28 February 2026 in a joint US-Israeli airstrike (confirmed by Al Jazeera, NPR, Iran International). His state funeral took place on 3 July 2026 after delays caused by ongoing hostilities. This means the supreme leadership post has formally been vacant for over 4.5 months. The Iran-US MoU of June 14, 2026 demonstrates that a provisional decision-making structure exists; formal legitimization by the Assembly of Experts remains pending. Historically, Khomeini's successor was named within a day in 1989. Leading candidates: Mojtaba Khamenei, Sadegh Larijani, Ahmad Jannati. Geopolitical pressure (Iran-US talks, revolutionary legitimacy) raises institutional urgency for formalization.

Data basis for this prediction
  • Al Jazeera 28. Februar 2026: Khamenei bei US-israelischem Luftangriff getötet
  • NPR / Iran International März 2026: Irans Staatsbeerdigung verzögert bis 3. Juli 2026
  • Al Jazeera 10. Juli 2026: Iran-USA-Gespräche stocken nach Khamenei-Staatsbeerdigung
Verdict: Hit
Der Expertenrat (Majles-e Khobregan) hat Mojtaba Khamenei am 8./9. März 2026 offiziell zum neuen Obersten Führer ernannt – weit vor der Frist 15. August 2026. Die Ernennung erfolgte damit nicht nach monatelangem Vakuum (wie in der Vorhersage-Begründung angenommen), sondern bereits ca. 8–9 Tage nach dem Tod Ali Khameneis. Die Vorhersage trifft inhaltlich zu (Mojtaba Khamenei war korrekt als Hauptkandidat benannt, die formelle Bestätigung durch den Expertenrat fand statt und wurde u.a. von IRNA, Al Jazeera, NPR und Iran International gemeldet), jedoch war die Begründung über ein 'Vakuum von über 4,5 Monaten' sachlich falsch. Quellen: [Iran International](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603030390), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/8/iran-names-khameneis-son-as-new-supreme-leader-after-fathers-killing-2), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2026/03/08/nx-s1-5741654/israel-iran-oil-ayatollah-successor), [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iranian_supreme_leader_election).
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