💻 Technology · Next Month

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) reports Q3-FY2026 quarterly revenue above USD 16.0 billion (earnings release 22 October 2026 after market close, confirmed by Intel Investor Relations or Bloomberg by 23 October 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 4. October 2026 · Predicted for 22. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

68%

Intel reported Q3 2025 revenue of USD 13.7bn (+3% YoY). For Q3 2026, Bloomberg/MarketBeat consensus stands at ~USD 16.72bn (+22% YoY), driven by AI server chips (Gaudi), PC cycle recovery, and initial Foundry new business following 2024–25 restructuring. The USD 16.0bn threshold is ~4% below consensus; given ~70% historical beat rates for S&P 500 companies, the probability of exceeding it is ~68%. Risks: AMD server market share gains (EPYC), Foundry ramp delays. No direct Polymarket market. Own estimate: 68%.

Data basis for this prediction

Intel Q3 2025 Ergebnisse: Umsatz USD 13,7 Mrd. +3 % YoY (Intel IR, Oktober 2025)
Bloomberg/MarketBeat Konsens Intel Q3-FY2026: ~USD 16,72 Mrd.; Berichtsdatum 22. Oktober 2026
AMD EPYC Servermarkt-Anteilsgewinne 2025–2026: Gegenwind für Intel DCAI (IDC / AMD IR)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Intel hat den Q3-FY2026-Quartalsbericht NICHT am 22. Oktober 2026 veröffentlicht. Das tatsächliche Berichtsdatum ist der 29. Oktober 2026 – eine Woche später als in der Vorhersage angegeben. Am 22. Oktober fiel die INTC-Aktie ~8 % aufgrund eines allgemeinen KI-Chip-Ausverkaufs, ohne Earnings-Release. Da das Bestätigungskriterium 'bis 23. Oktober 2026' somit nicht erfüllt werden konnte, ist die Vorhersage formal gescheitert – unabhängig davon, ob der Umsatz letztlich die 16-Mrd.-USD-Schwelle übersteigen wird. Intels eigene Q3-Guidance ($15,8–16,8 Mrd., Midpoint ~$16,3 Mrd.) und der Analysten-Konsens ($16,5 Mrd.) deuten zwar darauf hin, dass die Schwelle beim tatsächlichen Bericht am 29. Oktober wahrscheinlich überschritten werden würde; das ändert aber nichts daran, dass die spezifischen Bedingungen der Vorhersage (Berichtsdatum 22.10., Bestätigung bis 23.10.) nicht erfüllt wurden. Quellen: MarketBeat (marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-10-29-intel-co-stock), Intel IR (intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1782), TradingKey (tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262235573).

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