ICE Arabica Coffee (KCZ26, December contract) closes above $2.90 per pound on October 31, 2026 (confirmed by ICE closing price or Bloomberg by November 1, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 28. September 2026
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Predicted for 31. October 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
ICE Arabica Coffee (KC) traded at ~$2.71/lb on September 22, 2026 — a 7.5-month high — driven by ICE certified inventories at a 2.75-year low (226,242 bags) and a slow Brazilian harvest. A ~7% further rally to $2.90/lb by end-October is plausible given ongoing supply tightness. The coffee price peaked above $3.50 in early 2025, providing structural headroom. Counterbalancing: the recovery from ~$2.20 to $2.71 was already rapid; profit-taking and a spot-to-three-month contango of $67.50/tonne signal easing near-term physical squeeze. No Polymarket/Kalshi instrument found for this threshold; calibration based on inventory indicators and supply-side analysis.
Data basis for this prediction
- ICE Arabica Coffee Spot ~2,71 USD/lb (7,5-Monats-Hoch, 22.09.2026, barchart.com / azcoffeeshops.com)
- ICE-zertifizierte Lagerbestände: 226.242 Säcke (2,75-Jahres-Tief, barchart.com, Sept. 2026)
- LME-Contango-Signal: Spot-zu-3M-Spread +67,50 USD/t (discoveryalert.com, Sept. 2026)
- Brasilien-Ernte: stockendes Tempo stützt Preise (Barchart/ICE-Analyse, Sept. 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
KCZ26 (Arabica Coffee Dezember 2026) schloss am 31. Oktober 2026 bei ca. 287,20 US-Cent/lb (≈ 2,872 USD/lb) — knapp unter dem Schwellenwert von 290 Cent (2,90 USD/lb). Interessanterweise hatte der Kontrakt die 290-Cent-Marke intramonatlich tatsächlich überschritten: Am 23. Oktober 2026 notierte er zeitweise bei ~309–310 Cent, was die Angebotsthese grundsätzlich bestätigte. Anschließend setzte jedoch eine starke Korrektur ein (-22 Cent in einer Woche), vermutlich durch Gewinnmitnahmen und nachlassenden Nearby-Druck — genau das im Vorhersage-Text als Gegenargument erwähnte Risiko. Zum Monatsende erholte sich der Preis lediglich leicht (+1,75 Cent) auf 287,20 Cent. Quellen: vietnam.vn (31.10.2026 Preisbericht), Barchart.com KCZ26, Investing.com historische Daten.
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Rémy Cointreau published its H1 FY2026/27 result on October 27, 2026: organic growth of +2.9 percent YoY for April–September 2026 — 90 basis points above this forecast's threshold. The company confirmed its FY2026/27 guidance ('gradual return to organic growth'). Q2 FY2026/27 (Jul–Sep): Cognac up 12 percent YoY. FY2025/26 full year: +0.2 percent organic ('in line with targets', Rémy IR, June 3, 2026). Achieving above 2.0 percent for the full year only requires H2 (Oct 2026–Mar 2027) to avoid a complete collapse — the 90-basis-point H1 buffer provides substantial safety margin. Risks: US demand weakness, Chinese Cognac tariffs, macro slowdown. Supporting: Rémy Martin premiumization strategy, confirmed guidance, strong Q2 momentum.
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