IBM (NYSE: IBM) Q2 2026 earnings (July 22, 2026): beats adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. $3.02 per share
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 15. July 2026
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Predicted for 22. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
IBM guided Q2 2026 EPS of $2.93, below the Street consensus of $3.02, and revenue guidance of $17.2B vs the $17.86B analyst estimate. Despite these conservative signals, IBM follows an established pattern: in the last four quarters it consistently beat its own guidance. Goldman Sachs (per TipRanks) anticipates upside from hybrid cloud and US government consulting contracts tied to elevated defense spending (Hormuz crisis, Ukraine). Downside risk: if IBM precisely hits its own guidance ($2.93), that misses the Street consensus ($3.02). Slight majority favors a beat.
Data basis for this prediction
- IBM Q2 2026 EPS-Guidance $2,93 vs. Street-Konsens $3,02 (MarketBeat, Stand 14. Juli 2026)
- IBM Q2 2026 Umsatz-Guidance $17,2 Mrd. vs. Konsens $17,86 Mrd. (MarketBeat/Yahoo Finance)
- IBM Berichtstermin: 22. Juli 2026, vorbörslich (TipRanks/StockStory, Stand 15. Juli 2026)
- Goldman Sachs erwartet IBM Q2 Upside durch Hybrid Cloud & Regierungsverträge (TipRanks, Juli 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] IBM Q2-2026 bereinigtes Non-GAAP-EPS: 2,93 USD (vorab bekanntgegeben 14. Juli), unter dem Konsens von ca. 3,02 USD. CEO nannte die Ergebnisse 'enttäuschend'. Quelle: StockTitan/IBM 8-K, IG UK, Motley Fool.
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Applied Materials has beaten the EPS consensus in all four of its last reported quarters, with an average earnings surprise of +3.5%. The company's own Q4 guidance is $3.82–$4.22 per share; consensus at $4.06 sits near the midpoint, reflecting classic conservative management framing. Revenue is estimated at $10.30B (+51% YoY) — TSMC and Samsung have not pulled back H2 2026 capex plans. No Polymarket market directly available; a 100% beat streak over 4 quarters with a positive guidance range implies 70–75% probability. Risk: supply chain delays or expanded US export controls on advanced chips could force a Q5 inventory build.
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PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.
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CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.