Thursday, 10. September 2026 · Next update: 22:00 DE EN Log in
Cassandra.news
Tomorrow's news. Today.
📈 Economy · Next Week

Hang Seng Index (HSI) closes below 25,000 points on September 4, 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or Investing.com closing price)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 2. September 2026 · Predicted for 4. September 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event
Probability
52%

The HSI closed at ~25,324 on September 1, 2026 and touched 25,022 intraday on September 2 – just 22 points above the round figure. China's NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for August disappointed at 49.0 (contraction), with the Manufacturing PMI also below expansion at 49.8. Ongoing property crisis, US tariff risks and weak domestic demand structurally weigh. A break below 25,000 under continued selling pressure is likely near-term. No Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.

Data basis for this prediction
  • Hang Seng Intraday-Tief 2. September 2026: 25.022 Pkt.; Schluss 1. September: 25.324 Pkt. (TradingEconomics/Vibiznews)
  • China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI August 2026: 49,0 – Kontraktion (CGTN/FXStreet, 31. August 2026)
  • China NBS Manufacturing PMI August 2026: 49,8 – unter Expansionsschwelle (CGTN, 31. August 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Hang Seng Index schloss am 4. September 2026 bei ca. 25.459 Punkten (0,6%) oder höher (+1,75%), deutlich über 25.000. Quellen: 24/7 Wall St., TradingEconomics.
Related Predictions
📈 Economy ✦ AI

S&P 500 (^GSPC) closes above 7,450 points on 30 September 2026 (confirmed by NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by 30 September 2026)

The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.

73%
Next Month · Predicted for 30. Sep 2026
📈 Economy ✦ AI

US Federal Reserve raises the Federal Funds target range by 25 basis points on 16 September 2026 (FOMC decision)

Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.

53%
Next Week · Predicted for 16. Sep 2026
📈 Economy ✦ AI

DAX 40 (XETRA) closes above 26,000 points on 30 September 2026 (confirmed by XETRA closing price or Bloomberg by 30 September 2026)

The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.

48%
Next Month · Predicted for 30. Sep 2026