💻 Technology · Next Month

Google (Alphabet) releases a new Gemini Pro model (e.g., Gemini 2.5 Pro or Gemini 2.5 Ultra) by October 31, 2026 (confirmed by Google DeepMind press release or The Verge by November 1)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 29. September 2026 · Predicted for 31. October 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

79%

Polymarket shows 79% probability for a new Gemini Pro release by October 31, 2026 (trading volume ~$1.0M, as of September 29, 2026). The timing market shows 28% for the October 12–18 window as the single most likely release week. Strategic pressure is high: a parallel Polymarket market gives Anthropic 89% probability for 'best AI model end of October,' raising Google's incentive to act. Alphabet reports Q3-FY2026 earnings on October 28 — a Gemini announcement shortly before would be strategically aligned.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: 'Next Google Gemini Pro model released by Oct 31, 2026' — 79% Yes (Volumen ~1,0 Mio. USD, 29.09.2026)
Polymarket: 'When will next Google Gemini Pro release?' — Fenster 12.–18. Oktober 28% (höchste Einzelbucket, 29.09.2026)
Polymarket: 'Which company has best AI model end of October?' — Anthropic 89%, Google 10% (29.09.2026)
Alphabet Investor Relations: Q3 FY2026 Earnings Call 28. Oktober 2026 (bestätigt)

Verdict: Hit

Google veröffentlichte am 13. Oktober 2026 Gemini 4 Argon – das erste Modell der neuen Gemini-4-Familie – als generell verfügbares Flagship-Modell für Pro- und Ultra-Abonnenten, bestätigt durch eine offizielle Ankündigung von Sundar Pichai/Google DeepMind. Das Modell ist das direkte Nachfolge-/Überbietungsmodell zu Gemini 2.5 Pro (welches im Oktober 2026 sogar abgekündigt wurde). Die Vorhersage nannte 'Gemini 2.5 Pro oder Gemini 2.5 Ultra' nur als Beispiele (z. B.); der Kern – ein neues Gemini-Pro-Level-Modell vor dem 31. Oktober 2026, bestätigt durch Google DeepMind – ist klar eingetreten. Quellen: Gemini 4 Argon Release (apidog.com/blog/gemini-4-argon-release-date/), SmartScope (smartscope.blog), Google AI Updates October 2026 (blog.google).

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Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) closes above $185.00 per share on at least one trading day in November 2026 — confirmed by Nasdaq or Bloomberg by December 1, 2026

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Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ: CBRS) closes below $100.00 per share on November 10, 2026 (confirmed by Nasdaq or Bloomberg by November 11, 2026)

CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.

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