FTSE 100 (LSE: ^FTSE) closes above 10,500 points on 31 July 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
The FTSE 100 stood at 10,702 points on 24 July 2026 (+0.59%, source: BBN Times / Sunday Guardian Live). The 10,500 threshold is 1.9% below the daily close. Supporting factors: Brent crude at $97–100/barrel (supports UK energy stocks BP, Shell), UK Retail Sales June 2026 +1.0% MoM (solid domestic demand), BoE meeting July 30 (hold at 3.75% expected, open prediction). Risks: US earnings shocks in week 31 (Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon), Middle East geopolitics. Historical FTSE 100 volatility ~12% p.a. implies a >1.9% downside probability in 7 days of ~16–18%. No Polymarket market available for FTSE 100. Prediction: 81% probability of close above 10,500.
Data basis for this prediction
- FTSE 100 Stand 24.07.2026: 10.702 Punkte +0,59% (BBN Times, Sunday Guardian Live)
- UK Retail Sales Juni 2026: +1,0% MoM Volumen (ONS, veröffentlicht 24.07.2026, Arab News)
- Brent Rohöl 24.07.2026: 97,04–100,40 USD/Barrel (Forbes Advisor)
- Offene BoE-Vorhersage: Leitzins 3,75% unverändert am 30.07.2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Der FTSE 100 schloss am 31. Juli 2026 bei 10.868,05 Punkten (−0,27% / −29,22 Punkte), damit deutlich über der Schwelle von 10.500 Punkten. Das Intraday-Hoch lag bei 10.989,45 Punkten. Quelle: BBN Times (https://www.bbntimes.com/financial/ftse-100-london-benchmark-slips-0-27-to-10-868-05-pulling-back-from-a-fresh-record-high-amid-ceuta-immigration-worries)
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.