French Prime Minister Lecornu Leaves Office by March 31, 2027 via Resignation or Lost Confidence Vote in the National Assembly (Confirmed by Élysée Statement or Reuters by April 1, 2027)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. September 2026
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Predicted for 31. March 2027
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Based on: Ongoing Event
France's National Assembly has been deeply fragmented since the 2024 elections — no bloc holds an absolute majority. According to Cassandra's already-open forecast, Lecornu will invoke Article 49.3 for the PLF 2027 by October 2026, triggering a 24-hour window for a censure motion (RN + NFP/LFI votes). Historical base rate: Borne, Attal, and Barnier have averaged under 14 months in office since 2022. A censure motion most recently fell only narrowly short. With an ongoing budget crisis and weak economic sentiment (Consumer Confidence in recession territory), the risk of political gridlock rises. No Polymarket markets available for this specific event; calibration based on French PM survival rate 2022–2026: ~42% probability of leaving office by March 31, 2027.
Data basis for this prediction
- Cassandra.news offene Prognose: Lecornu nutzt Art. 49.3 für PLF 2027 bis 31. Oktober 2026
- Reuters 2022–2026: PMs Borne, Attal, Barnier — Ø Amtszeit unter 14 Monate je Premier
- Assemblée nationale: Keine absolute Mehrheit seit Parlamentswahl Juli 2024 (Reuters/AFP)
- Art. 49.3 Verfassung: Zensurmotion binnen 24h nach Einsatz möglich (legifrance.gouv.fr)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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