🏛️ Politics
· Next Month
French Prime Minister François Bayrou survives all no-confidence motions in the National Assembly until August 31, 2026, and remains in office (confirmed by Assemblée nationale or Élysée)
Probability
78%
François Bayrou has been PM since January 2025 without a parliamentary majority. He most recently survived a no-confidence motion in June 2026 with approx. 50 votes to spare (Reuters, June 2026). Critically, the National Assembly enters regular summer recess from late June and does not reconvene until October (Art. 28 of the Fifth Republic constitution). Extraordinary sessions can be called but are rarely used for censure motions as they would be politically costly for Macron. The structural risk of a successful no-confidence vote over the remaining six weeks to August 31 is therefore low. No Polymarket contract; assessment based on constitutional law and current political balance.
Data basis for this prediction
- Bayrou übersteht Misstrauensantrag im Juni 2026: ca. 50 Stimmen Spielraum (Reuters, Juni 2026)
- Art. 28 Verfassung der Fünften Republik: Parlamentarische Sommerpause bis Oktober (Assemblée nationale)
- Umfragewerte Bayrou-Regierung: Zustimmung ca. 28 % (IFOP, Juli 2026)
- Élysée: Keine außerordentliche Sitzung der Nationalversammlung für Sommer 2026 angekündigt (AFP, Juli 2026)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] François Bayrou überstand NICHT alle Misstrauensanträge – er verlor am 8. September 2025 eine Vertrauensabstimmung (die er selbst initiiert hatte) und trat am 9. September 2025 zurück. Quelle: CNBC, Al Jazeera.