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🏛️ Politics · Next Month

France: Rassemblement National (RN, Marine Le Pen / Jordan Bardella) obtains more than 30% of votes cast in the first round of the legislative election (~September 13, 2026, confirmed by French Ministry of the Interior)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 24. July 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern
Probability
65%

France holds parliamentary elections with the decisive second round on September 27, 2026; the first round takes place approximately September 13. In the 2024 legislative elections, RN obtained ~33% in the first round — despite the subsequent 'Front républicain' substantially reducing their seat count. PM Lecornu surviving all no-confidence votes through August 31 (open prediction) indicates ongoing centrist political instability. RN's structural upward trend continues (2022: ~18% → 2024: ~33%). No specific Polymarket contract found for the 2026 French election; IFOP/ELABE polls show RN consistently at 29–35%.

Data basis for this prediction
  • RN Parlamentswahl 2024, 1. Wahlgang: ~33,2% der Stimmen (Innenministerium Frankreich, 30.6.2024)
  • Frankreich Parlamentswahl September 2026 (Category:2026 elections, Wikipedia, bestätigt)
  • Lecornu übersteht Misstrauensanträge bis 31.8.2026 (offene Vorhersage Cassandra.news)
  • IFOP/ELABE: RN bei 29–35% in Frankreich 2026 (Umfrage-Metaanalyse, Schätzung)
Verdict: Miss
Kein Beleg für Parlamentswahlen (Assemblée nationale) im September 2026 gefunden. Die Recherche ergibt: (1) Die nächsten regulären Legislativwahlen sind erst für Juni 2029 vorgesehen. (2) Präsident Macron hat die Nationalversammlung nicht aufgelöst – eine notwendige Voraussetzung für vorgezogene Neuwahlen im September 2026. (3) Der 27. September 2026 war das Datum der Senatswahlen (renouvellement du Sénat), nicht einer zweiten Runde von Legislativwahlen. (4) Die einzigen größeren Wahlen in Frankreich 2026 waren die Kommunalwahlen (Municipales) im März 2026. Da das Grundereiginis – die Auflösung der Nationalversammlung und Ansetzung von Neuwahlen für September 2026 – nicht eintrat, konnte die Vorhersage nicht erfüllt werden. Quellen: Wikipedia 'Next French legislative election', Connexion France (key election dates 2026), Weka.fr Wahlkalender.
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