France Parliamentary Election Round 1 (September 13, 2026): Rassemblement National (RN) achieves more than 33.0% of votes cast, confirmed via French Interior Ministry or AFP
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. August 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The PolitPro Election Trend of August 22, 2026 shows RN at 35% nationally – well ahead of the Nouveau Front Populaire (24%) and Ensemble (<16%). Existing platform predictions cover the NFP and Ensemble thresholds but not the RN first-round share. Historically, RN overperforms its national polling by +1.5 to +2.5 pp. in the first round. Marine Le Pen announced her 2027 presidential candidacy (July 2026), giving the RN camp additional mobilization momentum. The 33.0% threshold is conservative below the polling average of 35%. Implied probability: ~62%.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Election Trend Frankreich, 22. August 2026: RN 35 %, NFP 24 %, Ensemble <16 %
- FranceInfo/IFOP Umfrage August 2026: RN-Führung stabil seit Mai 2026, Le Pen Kandidatur Juli 2026
- Historische RN-Überperformance 1. Runde: +1,5 bis +2,5 Pp. vs. Umfragen (2022/2024 Vergleich)
- AFP Wahlanalyse: RN-Mobilisierung nach Le Pen-Kandidatur-Ankündigung (Juli 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.