FOMC October Meeting (October 28/29, 2026): Federal Reserve holds the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.75–4.00% after the September hike
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. September 2026
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Predicted for 29. October 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Polymarket gives 64% to a September hike (+25 bps, to 3.75–4.00%; open prediction). Historically the Fed pauses at least once after a hike to process incoming data (back-to-back hikes occurred in 2022–23 but are the exception). CME FedWatch implies ~48% October pause vs. ~52% hike as of Sept 11, 2026. The open year-end prediction (rate ≥4.00–4.25%) is compatible with a November or December hike, making an October pause structurally plausible. August CPI above 3.0% (open prediction) argues for caution; core CPI is trending lower. Close call: October pause slightly more likely than a consecutive second move.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket FOMC September 2026: 64 % für +25 bps (polymarket.com, Stand 11. Sept 2026)
- CME FedWatch Tool: Oktober-FOMC Wahrscheinlichkeiten, Stand 11. Sept 2026 (cmegroup.com/fedwatch)
- FedRateCalc.com FOMC-Termine 2026: Oktober-Sitzung 27./28. Okt 2026 (fedratecalc.com)
- US CPI August 2026 (BLS, 11. Sept 2026): Headline >3,0 % – offene Prognose Cassandra.news
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
NVDA closed at $220.21 on 11 September 2026 (+0.82%). The S&P 500 gained +0.94% on the same day, ending a four-session losing streak. For a close above $225 on 17 September (~2.2% required), a potential market relief rally post-FOMC on 16 September supports the case (expected +25bps; a 'dovish hike' framing typically benefits growth equities). Headwinds: US 10Y yield at 4.97% and persistent inflation (August 2026 CPI >3.4%). No Polymarket data found; calibrated probability: ~52%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold trades at approximately $4,383/oz on September 11, 2026 (–0.30% vs. prior day). Reaching the $4,500 threshold by September 30 requires approximately 2.7% gain over 19 trading days. Drivers: geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, elevated US inflation (CPI August 2026: +3.4% YoY). Headwind: FOMC rate hike September 16 (Polymarket 49%, Kalshi 57%, CME FedWatch >60% for +25bp) traditionally strengthens the dollar. Analyst year-end targets: JPMorgan >$4,900, Goldman Sachs $4,900, HSBC $4,560 (annual average) – the $4,500 threshold is conservatively calibrated relative to these targets. No prediction markets for September 30 available.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bloomberg survey of September 11, 2026: all 52 BOJ watchers forecast a 25 bp hike at the September 18 meeting. The BOJ held at 1.00% in July 2026, but warned core CPI would likely exceed 2% from September. Strong wage growth supports further normalization. 93% of analysts expect the next move no earlier than December or January. Near-unanimous consensus justifies 88% (12% residual: surprise hold risk).