FOMC October Meeting (October 28/29, 2026): Federal Reserve holds the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.75–4.00% after the September hike
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. September 2026
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Predicted for 29. October 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Polymarket gives 64% to a September hike (+25 bps, to 3.75–4.00%; open prediction). Historically the Fed pauses at least once after a hike to process incoming data (back-to-back hikes occurred in 2022–23 but are the exception). CME FedWatch implies ~48% October pause vs. ~52% hike as of Sept 11, 2026. The open year-end prediction (rate ≥4.00–4.25%) is compatible with a November or December hike, making an October pause structurally plausible. August CPI above 3.0% (open prediction) argues for caution; core CPI is trending lower. Close call: October pause slightly more likely than a consecutive second move.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket FOMC September 2026: 64 % für +25 bps (polymarket.com, Stand 11. Sept 2026)
- CME FedWatch Tool: Oktober-FOMC Wahrscheinlichkeiten, Stand 11. Sept 2026 (cmegroup.com/fedwatch)
- FedRateCalc.com FOMC-Termine 2026: Oktober-Sitzung 27./28. Okt 2026 (fedratecalc.com)
- US CPI August 2026 (BLS, 11. Sept 2026): Headline >3,0 % – offene Prognose Cassandra.news
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Vorhersage ist exakt eingetreten. Die Fed hielt auf der FOMC-Sitzung vom 28. Oktober 2026 den Zielkorridor unverändert bei 3,75–4,00 % (Abstimmung: 10–2). Der Korridor war nach der September-Anhebung (+25 bps) genau auf diesem Niveau – und die Fed pausierte wie prognostiziert. Zwei Mitglieder (Gov. Lisa Cook und Cleveland Fed-Präsidentin Beth Hammack) votierten für eine weitere Anhebung, blieben aber in der Minderheit. Quellen: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm, cnbc.com/2026/10/28/fed-interest-rate-decision-october-2026.html, cnn.com/2026/10/28/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-october
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