FOMC September 17, 2026: Federal Reserve leaves policy rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 4. September 2026
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Predicted for 17. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket shows ~57% for unchanged rate, Kalshi ~70% — no market prices a cut (<1%). The July 2026 FOMC ended with a 9-3 vote to pause; Fed Chair Warsh signalled caution at Jackson Hole without pre-committing to a hike. Mixed inflation (core CPI 2.6% above target, energy-driven headline elevated by oil) makes a pause the most likely outcome. Own estimate: 62%, slightly above Polymarket, slightly below Kalshi.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket FOMC September 2026: ~57% Hold, ~43% Hike (Stand 4. September, OddsShopper / Polycopy)
- Kalshi FOMC September 2026: ~70% Hold, ~28% Hike (Stand 4. September, DeFiRate)
- FOMC Juli 2026: Fed Funds bei 3,50–3,75% gehalten, 9:3-Abstimmung (Federal Reserve / Cambridge Currencies)
- Warsh Jackson Hole 2026: Hawkische Rhetorik; Kern-CPI 2,6% (Forbes Fed Tracker 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] FOMC-Entscheid September 2026 war eine Anhebung (nicht Beibehaltung bei 3,50–3,75 %). Tatsächliche Entscheidung am 16.09.2026 gefallen; Deadline 17.09 noch offen, aber bereits endgültig entschieden. Quelle: CNBC, 16.09.2026.
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