🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Federal Reserve (FOMC) keeps the US policy rate (Federal Funds Rate) unchanged at the September meeting (September 16–17, 2026, confirmed by Fed press release or Bloomberg)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 28. August 2026 · Predicted for 17. September 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

68%

Polymarket and Kalshi price approximately 70% probability for an unchanged Federal Funds Rate in September; ~28–35% for a 25 bps hike; near-zero for a cut. Three FOMC members already dissented at the July 2026 meeting in favour of a hike (persistent inflation, geopolitical risks). The BEA PCE deflator for July 2026 came in at 3.1%+ annualised (open prediction), keeping policy under pressure without forcing the majority into immediate action. Polymarket sees 34% probability of a hike; the majority position remains data-watching.

Data basis for this prediction

Kalshi FOMC September 2026: ~70,5% Hold, ~28,5% Hike (kalshi.com, Stand 28.08.2026)
Polymarket Fed Decision September 2026: ~69% Hold, ~34% Hike (polymarket.com, Stand 28.08.2026)
FOMC Juli 2026: 3 Dissenter für Hike (Fed-Protokoll, Reuters/Bloomberg, Aug 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Die Fed erhöhte den Leitzins am 16. September 2026 um 25 Bp auf 3,75–4,00 % – erste Anhebung seit 2023 (Quelle: CNBC, Fox Business, Federal Reserve Pressemitteilung). Prediction lautete auf unverändert.

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