Federal Reserve (FOMC) holds the US policy rate unchanged at the 3.50–3.75% target range at the September meeting (15/16 September 2026, confirmed by FOMC press release or Bloomberg)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 25. August 2026
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Predicted for 16. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
CME FedWatch on 20 August 2026 showed 68.4% hold probability; Kalshi put the hold chance at 65%. Background: July FOMC held at 3.50–3.75% (3 dissenters favouring a hike). The weak July 2026 US jobs report (net employment decline) materially reduced September-hike expectations. Iran-conflict energy price shocks and above-target core inflation keep a hike theoretically alive. Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote (28 Aug) may shift near-term pricing. Note: this forecast does NOT contradict the open platform prediction 'Fed raises rates at least once by 31.12.2026' — a November or December hike remains possible.
Data basis for this prediction
- CME FedWatch: 68,4 % Hold-Wahrscheinlichkeit September-FOMC – Stand 20.08.2026 (macromicro.me / cmegroup.com)
- Kalshi: 65 % Hold-Wahrscheinlichkeit September 2026 (centralbank.watch, Stand 25.08.2026)
- CNBC: 'Odds the Fed will hike in September tumble following big July jobs miss' (07.08.2026)
- Chase/JP Morgan Wealth: 'September 2026 rate hike now expected amid energy shocks' – kontrastierender Hike-Treiber (chase.com, August 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] FOMC hat beim September-Treffen 2026 den Zins NICHT unverändert gelassen, sondern um 25 Bps angehoben. Quelle: CNBC, 16.09.2026.
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