Federal Reserve (Fed) keeps its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75% at the November and December 2026 FOMC meetings — neither cut nor hike (confirmed by FOMC press releases or Bloomberg by December 31, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. September 2026
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Predicted for 16. December 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket sees 88.8% probability of zero rate cuts in 2026 (as of September 2026). The current Fed funds rate is 3.50–3.75% — unchanged for months. The Fed faces a stagflation dilemma: weak labor market (July NFP −23,000, ADP August 38,000) alongside elevated inflation (August CPI forecast >3.2%). Rate cuts would be politically risky with elevated inflation; rate hikes economically dangerous with shrinking payrolls. The existing Cassandra forecast for the September meeting (no change) is already priced in; the same logic applies to November (5th/6th) and December (15th/16th).
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 88,8 % Wahrscheinlichkeit null Fed-Zinssenkungen 2026 (polycopy.app/polymarket-fed-rate-cut, Stand September 2026)
- Fed Funds Rate 3,50–3,75 %, unveränderter Stand August 2026 (CNBC, 3.9.2026)
- ADP August +38.000; BLS Juli-NFP −23.000 (BLS.gov / PR Newswire, Stand 3.9.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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