Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25% at the 28 October 2026 FOMC meeting (confirmed by Federal Reserve press release or Bloomberg by 28 October 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. September 2026
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Predicted for 28. October 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Polymarket prices 54% probability for another 25bp move in October (as of 18 Sept 2026). The Fed delivered its first hike since 2023 on 16 September 2026, lifting the target to 3.75–4.00% (unanimous 12:0 vote), citing persistently elevated inflation. The US 10-year yield stands at 5.01% post-hike (TradingEconomics, 18 Sept 2026), signalling continued tightening pressure. Market consensus for the year-end policy rate is 4.1–4.4%, achievable only through at least one more hike. VIX at ~14 shows no elevated recession fears that would force a pause. Key risk: simultaneous growth slowdown from the double-hike cycle.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 54 % für Fed-Hike Oktober 2026 (Stand 18.09.2026)
- CNBC: FOMC hebt Leitzins am 16.09.2026 auf 3,75–4,00 %, Abstimmung 12:0 (cnbc.com)
- US-10J-Rendite: 5,01 % (TradingEconomics, Stand 18.09.2026)
- Kiplinger/Advisor Perspectives: Markt-Konsens Jahresend-Leitzins 4,1–4,4 % (Sep 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Die Fed hielt den Leitzins am 28. Oktober 2026 unverändert bei 3,75–4,00 % (10:2-Abstimmung). Eine Erhöhung auf 4,00–4,25 % fand nicht statt. Zwei Dissidenten (Beth Hammack, Lisa Cook) stimmten zwar für eine Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte, blieben aber in der Minderheit. Fed-Chef Warsh entschied sich für eine Pause vor den Midterm-Wahlen. Quellen: Fox Business (foxbusiness.com), Raisin Live-Breakdown (raisin.com), Blockchain.News (blockchain.news/news/fed-holds-rates-at-375-400-in-split-october-fomc-vote), Federal Reserve Pressemitteilung (federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20261028a1.pdf).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Take-Two Interactive reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) results on November 9 after market close. Estimated analyst consensus: approx. -$0.45 EPS (heavy investment cycle around GTA VI and other AAA titles). TTWO has beaten consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters; strong Recurrent Consumer Spending base (mobile, NBA 2K, GTA Online) consistently delivers positive surprises on cost discipline. Report date confirmed by TipRanks Earnings Calendar (as of Nov 8, 2026). Verification by TTWO Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 ET.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Constellation Energy reports Q3-FY2026 tomorrow (November 9, 2026) before market open. TradingView and Gurufocus put the EPS consensus at $3.90/share, with revenue consensus at $9.23B. CEG has beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters — an 87.5% historical beat rate. Driver: Structurally rising nuclear power demand for AI data centers (e.g., Microsoft contracts) boosts reactor utilization and secures stable cash flows. Risk: Stock fell ~9% post-midterm results, reflecting repriced regulatory uncertainty that could overshadow near-term operational strength. Strong fundamentals and consistent beat history nevertheless support another consensus beat.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Walmart has beaten EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters. The official consensus is $0.64/share — identical to the top of management guidance ($0.62–$0.64). Analysts average $0.72 (range $0.70–$0.73), anticipating another structural beat. Drivers: Robust US consumer (October CPI ~3.5–3.7%; September retail sales +0.8% MoM), ongoing grocery market share gains, and strong e-commerce and advertising growth. Risk: Management lowered full-year guidance after Q2; macro headwinds from elevated prices could compress volume mixes. The consistent beat history and structural tailwinds prevail.