📈 Economy
· Next Month
Federal Reserve keeps US policy rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75% at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting
Probability
65%
Polymarket shows ~34% probability of a 25 bps hike on September 16, implying ~66% for a hold. Although three members dissented for a hike at the July meeting (Jul 29) and rising oil prices (Brent ~$91 on Aug 31) increase inflationary pressure, the weak July NFP (–23,000) has significantly dampened hike expectations. Current target rate: 3.50–3.75%. A hike would mark the highest level since 2001. The September meeting includes the SEP dot plot, which provides transparency — this typically favors a pause.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket 'Fed Decision in September?': Hold 53,5 % / Hike 46,5 % (ca. 26.8.2026); TradeTheOutcome: Hike zuletzt 34 % nach NFP-Schock
- CNBC Fed Meeting Recap 29.7.2026: Leitzins unverändert 3,50–3,75 %, 3 Dissenter für Hike
- FedRateCalc.com: FOMC-Sitzung 15.–16. September 2026 mit SEP/Dot-Plot bestätigt
- Forbes Fed Meeting Tracker Aug 2026: Hike-Odds nach schwachem Juli-NFP deutlich gefallen
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.