Federal Reserve leaves the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75% at the September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting (confirmed by FOMC press release or Bloomberg by September 16, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. September 2026
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Predicted for 16. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Current Federal Funds Rate: ~3.63% (target range 3.50–3.75%). centralbank.watch describes monetary policy as 'accommodative' (below neutral ~4.71%). Polycopy/Polymarket data: near-zero market probability of a September change. ISM Services PMI August: 54.2 points (strong) — no emergency forcing a cut. Note: the existing open Cassandra forecast covers only November and December; the September FOMC is uncovered. Polymarket sees 71.5% for a rate hike at some point in 2026, but not specifically in September.
Data basis for this prediction
- centralbank.watch/federal-reserve: Fed Rate ~3,63%, 'accommodative' (Stand 3. September 2026)
- polycopy.app: Polymarket Live Fed Rate Odds – September nahezu keine Änderung (Stand 3. September 2026)
- ISM: Non-Manufacturing PMI August 2026 = 54,2 Punkte (3. September 2026)
- Federal Reserve Board: FOMC Meeting Calendar – September 15.-16. September 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Fed hat Leitzins NICHT unverändert gelassen – stattdessen Anhebung um 25 Bps auf 3,75–4,00 % beschlossen. Quelle: CNBC, 16.09.2026.
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