🏛️ Politics · Next Month

FDP fails the 5% threshold and does not enter the Berlin House of Representatives (Berlin state election, September 20, 2026, confirmed by the Berlin Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 6. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

88%

All available Berlin polls consistently show the FDP at 3.5% — well below the 5% threshold. Ipsos, the Tagesspiegel election trend, and dawum.de (early September 2026) confirm this figure uniformly. BSW also polls at ~3.8% and is likewise expected to fail. The calibration history is a warning: in the Saxony-Anhalt election (September 6, 2026) the FDP surprisingly achieved 6.4% and cleared the threshold (prediction miss). However, in Berlin there is no upward trend; moreover, the Berlin electorate is structurally less FDP-friendly than that of Saxony-Anhalt. Independent calibration yields approximately 88% probability of failing the threshold.

Data basis for this prediction

Tagesspiegel/dawum.de Wahltrend Berlin: FDP 3,5 %, BSW 3,8 % (aktuell Anfang Sep 2026)
Ipsos Berlin-Umfrage: FDP 3,5 %, kein Aufwärtstrend in den letzten 4 Wochen (ipsos.com/de-de, Sep 2026)
Kalibrierungshistorie: SA-FDP überraschend 6,4 % → Scheitern-Prognose war Miss (bpb.de, 6. Sep 2026)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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