ECB Governing Council leaves the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.75% at its October 29, 2026 monetary policy meeting (confirmed by ECB press release or Bloomberg by October 29, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 20. September 2026
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Predicted for 29. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, 2026 (first hike since 2023, driven by Iran war energy shock). The existing Cassandra forecast predicts an ECB hike 'by a further 25bp to 3.00%' on December 17, 2026 — 'further' implies the current ECB deposit rate is 2.75%. Eurozone Composite PMI September 2026: 51.2 (slightly expansionary, no urgency). A pause in October followed by a December hike — once updated ECB staff projections are available — matches the ECB's classic pattern. Main risk: unexpected inflation surge forces a double hike (~15%). No Polymarket market available.
Data basis for this prediction
- Fed erhöht Leitzins auf 3,75–4,00 %, 16. September 2026 (FedRateCalc / Bloomberg)
- HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI September 2026: 51,2 (S&P Global)
- EZB Ratssitzungskalender: 28.–29. Oktober 2026 (EZB.europa.eu)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] EZB hielt Einlagenzins bei 2,50 %, nicht bei 2,75 % wie die Vorhersage verlangte. Quelle: euribor-rates.info, ECB
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