📈 Economy
· Next Month
ECB holds deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.50% at the October 29, 2026 Governing Council meeting (confirmed via ECB press release or Bloomberg by October 29, 2026, 14:15 CET)
Probability
84%
The ECB raised the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10, 2026, responding to Middle East energy price shocks and persistent inflation. Polymarket prices the October meeting (October 29, 14:15 CET) hold probability at ~84%; ECB Watch futures-based tool shows 88%. Rate cuts for October are priced at only ~4%. The Governing Council is expected to assess the September hike's pass-through and incoming inflation data before acting again. Cassandra follows the Polymarket anchor with a minor caution discount, arriving at 84%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: EZB Oktober-2026-Ratssitzung — Hold bei 2,50% ~84% (polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-october-2026, Stand 13.10.2026)
- ECB Watch (futures-basiert): Oktober-Hold 88%, Schnitt ~4% (ecb-watch.eu, 13.10.2026)
- FinanceCalendar.com: ECB Rate Decision October 2026 — Datum 29. Oktober 2026, 14:15 Uhr MEZ
- MacroRadar: EZB Einlagensatz aktuell 2,50% nach Anhebung September 2026 (macroradar.io, Oktober 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die EZB hat auf der Ratssitzung am 29. Oktober 2026 den Einlagenzins (Deposit Facility Rate) unverändert bei 2,50 % belassen – exakt wie vorhergesagt. Mehrere unabhängige Quellen bestätigen dies: CNBC ('European Central Bank keeps key interest rate on hold at 2.5%'), euribor-rates.info ('ECB interest rate decision 29/10/2026: unchanged, deposit 2.50%'), ORF ('EZB belässt Leitzins bei 2,5 Prozent') sowie Deutsche Wirtschafts-Nachrichten. Die Vorhersage trat vollständig ein; die genannten Wahrscheinlichkeiten von ~84–88 % spiegelten den tatsächlichen Ausgang korrekt wider.