ECB raises deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% at the approx. 10 September 2026 Governing Council meeting
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 19. July 2026
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Predicted for 10. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
After the ECB's first rate hike since 2023 to 2.25% (June 11, 2026) and an expected hold on July 23 (~88% market probability), markets price ~50% probability for a further hike in September (ECB-Watch.eu, centralbank.watch). Bloomberg survey (July 17, 2026): 'ECB Set to Wait for September to Hike One Last Time.' Eurozone inflation: May 2026 at 2.8% above the 2% target, driven by energy prices (TTF gas >€60/MWh). Forecast: energy inflation Q3 2026 peak ~12.5%. September is a 'projection day' meeting with new staff forecasts — increased signalling power. Polymarket 'ECB rate hike in 2026': ~62% for at least one more hike in 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- Bloomberg: 'ECB Set to Wait for September to Hike One Last Time, Poll Shows' (17.07.2026)
- ECB-Watch.eu / centralbank.watch: ~50 % Marktwahrscheinlichkeit September-Erhöhung (Juli 2026)
- Polymarket: 'ECB rate hike in 2026' – ~62 % für weitere Erhöhung (Juli 2026)
- ECB Pressemitteilung: Einlagensatz auf 2,25 % angehoben (11.06.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] EZB hat am 10. September 2026 den Einlagensatz auf 2,50 % erhöht (+25 Bp). Bestätigt durch offizielle EZB-Pressemitteilung.
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