ECB leaves deposit rate unchanged at 2.50% at the Governing Council meeting on October 29, 2026 (confirmed by ECB press release or Bloomberg by October 30, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 23. September 2026
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Predicted for 29. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% at its September 2026 meeting. Polymarket prices ~54% probability for an unchanged hold at the October meeting (October 29), 46% for a further hike (trading volume ~$141M; as of September 23, 2026). Arguments for a hold: (1) central banks rarely hike in two consecutive meetings; (2) Eurozone industrial sector in contraction — HCOB Manufacturing PMI Germany and France both below 50 (open Cassandra predictions); (3) EUR/USD at ~1.145 — no abrupt exchange rate pressure. Counter-argument: Eurozone HICP September expected ≥3% (open Cassandra prediction) and the US economy runs hot (ISM Manufacturing 54.6), favoring transatlantic inflation imports. Slight market majority and structural logic favor a pause.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 'ECB Interest Rates: October 2026' — Keine Änderung 54%, Erhöhung 46% (~141 Mio. USD Volumen, Stand 23. September 2026)
- ECB Einlagensatz: 2,50% (erhöht September 2026; Quelle: ECB.europa.eu / NewTrading.io, Stand 23. September 2026)
- ECB-Sitzungskalender 2026: Nächste Entscheidung 29. Oktober 2026, 14:15 MEZ (Quelle: ECB.europa.eu)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] EZB hielt Einlagenzins unverändert bei 2,50 %. Quelle: euribor-rates.info, ECB Pressemitteilung 29.10.2026
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