ECB keeps deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% on July 23, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 21. July 2026
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Predicted for 23. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The ECB last hiked the deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.25% on June 11, 2026. The July meeting is a non-projection meeting, raising the bar for additional action. Robinhood Prediction Markets prices an 88% hold probability. Brent crude near $87–89 signals price pressure, but ECB members have recently explicitly signaled a data-dependent pause. The September meeting (with new projections) is the realistic next candidate for a hike — the open Cassandra prediction targets a rise to 2.50% there.
Data basis for this prediction
- ECB Pressemitteilung 11. Juni 2026: Einlagensatz auf 2,25 % (ecb.europa.eu/mp260611)
- Robinhood Prediction Market: 88 % Hold-Wahrscheinlichkeit Juli 2026 (Stand: 21. Juli 2026)
- PipTheory ECB July 2026 Preview: Hold erwartet (piptheory.com, Juli 2026)
- Brent Crude: ca. 87,72–89,04 USD/Barrel (Forbes Advisor, 20.–21. Juli 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] EZB-Entscheidung am 23. Juli 2026: Einlagensatz bleibt bei 2,25%. Marktpreismodell wies 95% Wahrscheinlichkeit für unveränderten Satz aus. Quelle: ECB Watch, tradingeconomics.com
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