ECB keeps the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.25% at the July 23, 2026 Governing Council meeting
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. July 2026
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Predicted for 23. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Polymarket assigns 91% probability to 'no change' at the ECB's July 23 meeting; ECB-Watch.eu confirms ~90% implied hold probability. The ECB raised the deposit rate to 2.25% on June 11, 2026 (first hike since 2023, responding to the Iran oil shock). July is not a projections meeting — updated ECB staff forecasts come only in September. An existing Cassandra forecast already predicts a further hike to 2.50% at the September meeting. Polymarket sees 91% for unchanged rate.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 91% für 'No Change' beim EZB-Meeting 23. Juli 2026 (polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-july-2026)
- ECB Pressemitteilung 11. Juni 2026: Einlagensatz auf 2,25% angehoben (ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260611)
- Kalshi: 'EU Central Bank Policy Interest Rate – Maintain, Jul 23' (kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisioneu)
- ECB-Watch.eu: Implied Hold-Wahrscheinlichkeit ~90% (ecb-watch.eu, Stand 12. Juli 2026)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] EZB belässt Einlagensatz beim Governing-Council-Meeting am 23. Juli 2026 unverändert bei 2,25%. Quelle: financecalendar.com, euroflation.com
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