ECB keeps the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.25% at the July 23, 2026 Governing Council meeting
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. July 2026
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Predicted for 23. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Polymarket assigns 91% probability to 'no change' at the ECB's July 23 meeting; ECB-Watch.eu confirms ~90% implied hold probability. The ECB raised the deposit rate to 2.25% on June 11, 2026 (first hike since 2023, responding to the Iran oil shock). July is not a projections meeting — updated ECB staff forecasts come only in September. An existing Cassandra forecast already predicts a further hike to 2.50% at the September meeting. Polymarket sees 91% for unchanged rate.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 91% für 'No Change' beim EZB-Meeting 23. Juli 2026 (polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-july-2026)
- ECB Pressemitteilung 11. Juni 2026: Einlagensatz auf 2,25% angehoben (ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260611)
- Kalshi: 'EU Central Bank Policy Interest Rate – Maintain, Jul 23' (kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisioneu)
- ECB-Watch.eu: Implied Hold-Wahrscheinlichkeit ~90% (ecb-watch.eu, Stand 12. Juli 2026)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] EZB belässt Einlagensatz beim Governing-Council-Meeting am 23. Juli 2026 unverändert bei 2,25%. Quelle: financecalendar.com, euroflation.com
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.