ExxonMobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) beats Q2 2026 adjusted EPS consensus of ~$3.50 per share (report: ~July 31, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. July 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
ExxonMobil is expected to report Q2 2026 results around July 30-31, 2026. Analyst consensus: ~$3.50 EPS (range: $3.43-$3.76 depending on source). WTI crude averaged ~$80/bbl in Q2 2026 (today at ~$82.50), supported by US-Iran military escalation and OPEC+ cuts. Exxon's upstream segment directly benefits from higher realization prices; downstream margins remain solid on stable refinery spreads. Exxon has consistently beaten consensus in recent quarters. No Polymarket market found for this event. No investment recommendation.
Data basis for this prediction
- hdfcsky.com (17. Juli 2026): WTI bei ~79 USD, intraday 82 USD – US-Iran-Konflikt treibt Ölpreise
- Nasdaq.com (Stand Juli 2026): XOM Q2 2026 EPS-Konsens ca. 3,70 USD
- Proactive Investors (Juli 2026): Exxon updates Q2 2026 earnings considerations — upstream pressure
- marketbeat.com (Stand Juli 2026): XOM earnings date und analyst EPS forecasts 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
ExxonMobil meldete für Q2 2026 einen bereinigten EPS von 3,52 USD – was die im Forecast genannte Benchmark von ~3,50 USD zwar knapp überschreitet, jedoch den tatsächlichen Wall-Street-Konsens von 3,68 USD (Zacks) um 4,3 % verfehlte. Mehrere Quellen bestätigen eine klare EPS-Miss: Yahoo Finance ('XOM Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates'), LevelFields ('Exxon Mobil Falls After Earnings Miss'), TIKR ('ExxonMobil Stock Drops After Q2 Earnings Miss Wall Street Targets'). Die Aktie fiel nach Bekanntgabe. Hauptursachen für das Verfehlen: höhere Kosten durch geplante Raffinerie-Wartungsarbeiten und gestiegene Abschreibungen. Die Vorhersage unterschätzte den echten Konsens ($3,50 statt $3,68), und das Kernszenario – Exxon schlägt die Analysten-Erwartungen – trat nicht ein. Quellen: investor.exxonmobil.com, finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/xom-q2-earnings-miss-estimates, tikr.com/blog/exxonmobil-xom-stock-drops-q2-earnings-miss-2026
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.