Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) beats adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of approx. $3.68 per share in Q2 2026 results (July 31, 2026, before market open, confirmed by ExxonMobil press release)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 28. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
ExxonMobil reports Q2 2026 before the bell on July 31. Consensus from 19 analysts (Alphastreet) is $3.68 EPS — a ~+124% increase vs Q2 2025 ($1.64), driven by elevated commodity prices and production records. XOM has beaten EPS estimates in four consecutive quarters; the current Earnings Surprise Prediction (ESP) stands at +4.40%, statistically pointing to another upside. Brent crude is trading at ~$96-97/barrel (as of July 25, 2026), well above yearly lows — a clear tailwind for the upstream segment. No Polymarket/Kalshi market identified; calibrated internally based on historical beat rate (~75% of last 8 quarters) and positive ESP metric.
Data basis for this prediction
- Alphastreet: 'Exxon Mobil (XOM) Q2 2026 Preview: EPS Est. $3.68, Reports July 31' (Stand 28.07.2026)
- Yahoo Finance: 'Why Exxon (XOM) Could Beat Earnings Estimates Again' – ESP +4.40% (Stand 28.07.2026)
- Trading Economics: Brent Crude ~$96.80/barrel (25.07.2026)
- Proactive Investors: 'Exxon Mobil updates Q2 earnings considerations' (Stand 28.07.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
ExxonMobil meldete für Q2 2026 (31. Juli 2026) ein bereinigtes EPS von 3,52 USD je Aktie und verfehlte damit den Konsens von 3,68 USD um ca. 4,3 % (Quellen: Zacks, Yahoo Finance, TIKR). Die Vorhersage, dass XOM den Konsens übertrifft, trat nicht ein. Hauptgründe für das Verfehlen: höhere Aufwendungen durch planmäßige Wartungsarbeiten und gestiegene Abschreibungen aus jüngsten Investitionen. Positiv hervorzuheben: Das Unternehmen übertraf die Umsatzschätzungen deutlich (116 Mrd. USD vs. 95,8 Mrd. USD erwartet) und erzielte Rekordproduktion im Permian-Becken – aber die EPS-Hürde wurde nicht genommen. Quellen: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/exxon-mobil-holdings-xom-q2-114502160.html | https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2965398/exxon-mobil-holdings-xom-q2-earnings-miss-estimates | https://www.tikr.com/blog/exxonmobil-xom-stock-drops-q2-earnings-miss-2026
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.