📈 Economy · Next Week

EUR/USD (spot) closes above 1.1400 on July 31, 2026 — confirmed by Bloomberg or Investing.com closing price

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

53%

EUR/USD stood at 1.1367 on July 24, 2026 — just 0.29% below the 1.1400 threshold. The ECB has clearly signalled a September 2026 rate hike is increasingly likely (EUR-positive). The Fed holds at 3.50–3.75% on July 29, further narrowing the rate differential in the euro's favour. Headwinds: persistently high oil prices weigh on the Eurozone trade balance, and US tariff risks remain. The required move of +0.29% over six trading days is minimal. No Polymarket data available for this specific date.

Data basis for this prediction

EUR/USD 1.1367 (Trading Economics, 24.07.2026)
EZB signalisiert September-Zinserhöhung zunehmend wahrscheinlich (Trading Economics/ECB, Juli 2026)
FOMC Juli 29: Fed hält 3,50–3,75% unverändert (bestehende offene Vorhersage)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Der EZB-Referenzkurs (Euro Foreign Exchange Reference Rates) für EUR/USD am 31. Juli 2026 lag bei 1,1485 — also +0,74 % über der Schwelle von 1,1400. Quelle: Amtsblatt der EU, EUR-Lex C/2026/3710 ('Euro exchange rates (1) 31 July 2026') sowie ECB-Referenzkurs-PDF vom 31.07.2026. Der monatliche Durchschnitt für Juli 2026 lag laut x-rates.com bei 1,1419, was mit einem Monatsendkurs von 1,1485 konsistent ist. Die Vorhersage trat ein: Beide treibenden Faktoren (EZB-Zinserhöhungssignal für September 2026, unveränderte Fed-Rate) wirkten EUR-positiv und sorgten für eine Bewegung deutlich über die Zielschwelle.

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