EUR/USD (Spot) closes above 1.1720 on August 28, 2026 (Jackson Hole keynote day, confirmed by Bloomberg or Investing.com closing price)
Miss
โฆ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. August 2026
ยท
Predicted for 28. August 2026
ยท
Based on: Ongoing Event
EUR/USD stood at 1.1679 on Aug 21; weekly high was 1.17065 (Aug 20). The platform also forecasts for the same day: Warsh signals a September rate pause and 10Y Treasury yields fall >5bps โ a classic dollar-weakening signal. The 1.1720 threshold requires +41 pips vs. Aug 21 close, moderate for a central bank communication event. Consistent with the separate platform forecast of EUR/USD >1.1700 on Aug 29.
Data basis for this prediction
- EUR/USD Spot 21.08.2026: 1,1679; Wochenhoch 1,17065 (20.08.2026) (TradingEconomics)
- Plattformprognose: Warsh signalisiert Zinspause + 10Y-Treasury โ5 Bps am 28.08.2026 (Cassandra.news, offen)
- Plattformprognose: EUR/USD >1,1700 am 29.08.2026 (Cassandra.news, offen)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] EUR/USD lag am 28. August bei ca. 1,1662, unter der Schwelle von 1,1720.
๐ Economy
โฆ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,591 on 10 September 2026 (-0.59%), weighed by high oil prices (Brent $105.71) and US-Iran tensions. The probability of a 25bp FOMC rate hike on 16 September stands at 62% (CME FedWatch), Kalshi 57%, Polymarket 56% โ largely priced in. Historically, markets react more moderately to anticipated rate moves than to surprises. The 7,500 threshold equals a 1.2% drop over seven trading days โ unlikely from an anticipated hike alone. Main risk: hawkish FOMC statement or acute Gulf escalation.
๐ Economy
โฆ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
๐ Economy
โฆ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a ฯ range of roughly ยฑ5.5% by month-end โ the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.