EUR/USD closes below 1.155 on August 28, 2026 (day of Warsh keynote at Jackson Hole)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 25. August 2026
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Predicted for 28. August 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first major policy keynote at Jackson Hole on August 28, 2026 at approximately 10:00 AM ET (theme: 'Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy'). EUR/USD currently trades at approximately 1.1654. Warsh is structurally hawkish: the Fed dropped forward guidance under him, three members voted for an immediate hike in July, and futures markets price approximately 34% for a September hike. If Warsh signals a more aggressive stance than priced, USD could rally quickly — a drop below 1.155 would represent approximately 0.9% USD appreciation. No explicit Polymarket market exists; the probability of such a sizable single-speech move is limited (base case: speech remains deliberately vague).
Data basis for this prediction
- EUR/USD Spot aktuell: ~1,1654 (Investing.com / TradingEconomics, Stand 25.08.2026)
- CME FedWatch: ~34 % Wahrscheinlichkeit für +25 BP September 2026 (Stand 25.08.2026)
- Warsh-Rede Jackson Hole: 28.08.2026, ca. 10:00 ET — XTB / Kansas City Fed (Stand 25.08.2026)
- FOMC Juli 2026: 9-3-Abstimmung; drei Mitglieder für sofortige Hike (Bloomberg / Polymarket)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] EUR/USD lag am 28. August bei ca. 1,1662, klar über der Schwelle von 1,155.
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