EUR/USD closes above 1.1400 on July 25, 2026
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 21. July 2026
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Predicted for 25. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
EUR/USD is trading at ~1.1427 on July 21, 2026. The key catalyst for the week is the ECB decision on July 23 (hold at 2.25% with 88% probability), which would be market-neutral to mildly EUR-supportive. Offsetting: US Core PCE (May 2026) is at 3.4% YoY and rising, supporting the USD; markets price 37% probability of a Fed hike in September (Polymarket). BofA forecasts EUR/USD at 1.15 by end-2026. The 1.1400 threshold is 27 pips below today's close — only a moderate decline would be needed to miss the prediction. Main risk: surprisingly hawkish Fed commentary before FOMC or geopolitical USD strength impulse.
Data basis for this prediction
- EUR/USD Spot: 1,1427 (ExchangeRates.org.uk, 21. Juli 2026)
- BofA EUR/USD Jahresendziel 1,15 (ExchangeRates.org.uk, 20. Juli 2026)
- US Core PCE Mai 2026: 3,4 % YoY – höchster Wert seit Oktober 2023 (BEA, 25. Juni 2026)
- Polymarket: 37 % Wahrscheinlichkeit Fed-Zinserhöhung September 2026 (polymarket.com, Juli 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] EUR/USD notierte am 24. Juli 2026 bei 1,1367 – unter der Schwelle von 1,1400. Vorhersage verfehlt.
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