📈 Economy · Next Week

EUR/USD spot rate closes below 1.1500 on September 17, 2026 (first EU trading day after the FOMC decision on September 16, confirmed by Bloomberg or Federal Reserve H.10 by September 17, 2026)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 10. September 2026 · Predicted for 17. September 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

40%

EUR/USD closed at 1.1638 on September 10, 2026. Polymarket sees a 56% probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike on September 16; Kalshi shows 58%. A rate hike — even an expected one — should temporarily strengthen the dollar and push EUR/USD below 1.15. With no hike, EUR/USD would likely stay stable or rise. Combined probability: 56% × 55% (EUR/USD drops below 1.15 on hike) + 44% × 15% (drops on pause) ≈ 37–42%. Calibrated at 40%; the open prediction 'EUR/USD > 1.1500 on September 30' is not contradicted — recovery is possible.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Fed Rate Hike 16. September 2026 – 56 % Wahrscheinlichkeit Zinserhöhung (Stand 10.09.2026)
Kalshi: Fed September 2026 Decision – 58 % Hike / 39 % Hold (Stand 10.09.2026)
DefiRate.com: Fed Decision Odds – Polymarket vs. Kalshi Vergleich (September 2026)
Bloomberg/FRB H.10: EUR/USD Schlusskurs 10.09.2026: 1,1638

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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