EUR/USD spot rate closes above 1.1500 on 16 September 2026 (FOMC decision day)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. September 2026
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Predicted for 16. September 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
EUR/USD traded at 1.1592 on 11 September 2026. FOMC decides on 16 September with a 69.3% probability of a 25bp hike (CME FedWatch) or 56–58% on Polymarket/Kalshi. Even a fully priced-in hike would likely push EUR/USD to 1.153–1.157; an aggressively hawkish signal would be needed to break below 1.1500. Historically, a priced-in 25bp hike moves EUR/USD on decision day by at most ±0.5%. The existing forecast EUR/USD >1.1400 on 19 September is logically consistent with this prediction.
Data basis for this prediction
- EUR/USD Kassakurs 11. September 2026: 1,1592 Wochentief (Investing.com / PoundSterlingLive)
- CME FedWatch: 69,3% Wahrscheinlichkeit 25bp-Hike FOMC 16. September 2026 (Stand 11. Sept)
- Kalshi / Polymarket: 56–58% Hike-Wahrscheinlichkeit September 2026 (Stand 11. Sept 2026)
- Historische Fed-Day EUR/USD-Volatilität: durchschnittlich ±0,4–0,6% bei eingepreistem Hike
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] EUR/USD Kassakurs am 16. September 2026: ~1,1550 (+0,06% ggü. Vortag, Vortag ~1,1547). Schlusskurs über 1,1500. Quelle: TradingEconomics EUR/USD.
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