European Central Bank cuts deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent on December 10, 2026 (confirmed by ECB press release or Bloomberg by December 10, 2026, 4:00 PM CET)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 29. October 2026
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Predicted for 10. December 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The ECB holds its deposit rate at 2.50% following the October 29, 2026 meeting — the actual rate already sat 25 bps below the 2.75% level mistakenly assumed in an earlier Cassandra prediction. Eurozone core inflation is near the 2% target, growth is weak, and the ECB Governing Council has eased repeatedly throughout 2026. The EURIBOR forward curve (October 2026) implies an estimated 60–65% probability of a further cut before year-end. Downside risks: surprise inflation from commodity or trade-tension effects, and USD strength following the hawkish Fed hold (October 28, 2026, two dissenters for hike). Next ECB meeting: approximately December 10, 2026 (6 weeks after October meeting, Thursday).
Data basis for this prediction
- EZB Einlagenzinssatz 2,50 % bestätigt — Oktober-Sitzung 29.10.2026 (euribor-rates.info)
- US Fed hält Leitzins, 2 Dissenter für Erhöhung (Eurasia Business News, 28.10.2026)
- EURIBOR-Terminkurve: ~60–65 % implizierte Dezember-Schnitt-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Schätzung, Stand 29.10.2026)
- EZB-Sitzungskalender: Nächste geldpolitische Entscheidung ~10. Dezember 2026 (6-Wochen-Rhythmus)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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