📈 Economy
· Next Month
European Central Bank (ECB) raises its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points from 2.25% to 2.50% at the September 10, 2026 meeting (confirmed by ECB press release)
Probability
72%
The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25bp to 2.25% on June 11, 2026 — its first hike in three years — as the Iran war drove eurozone inflation to a three-year high. The next meeting is September 10, 2026. Market data (centralbank.watch, as of Aug 2026) implies 83% probability of another 25bp move. Persistently elevated energy prices (Strait of Hormuz still closed) and sticky core inflation support continued tightening. The 50% odds seen before the June hike have risen to 83% in current market pricing.
Data basis for this prediction
- euronews.com: ECB raises interest rates for first time in three years — Iran war fuels eurozone inflation (11. Juni 2026)
- centralbank.watch: ECB September 2026 rate hike probability 83% for +25bp — deposit rate at 2.25% (Aug 2026)
- ECB.europa.eu: Monetary policy decision June 11, 2026 — deposit facility rate raised to 2.25%
- financecalendar.com: ECB rate decision September 10, 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.