🏛️ Politics · Next Month

EU Council blocks or indefinitely postpones the Chat Control regulation by July 31, 2026

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 11. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

70%

The EU Parliament passed the Chat Control regulation on July 9, 2026 via fast-track procedure (414 vs. 224 votes). However, entry into force requires a qualified majority in the EU Council. Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and Finland have blocked the measure for years due to data protection and encryption concerns. All previous Chat Control drafts (2022, 2023, 2024) failed in the Council – the pattern continues.

Verdict: Miss

Die Vorhersage trat nicht ein. Der EU-Rat blockierte die Chatkontrolle gerade NICHT – stattdessen trieb er sie aktiv voran. Am 2. Juli 2026 nahm der Rat den ursprünglichen Kommissionstext als seine eigene zweite Lesung an (Dringlichkeitsverfahren, Art. 170), was die Abstimmungsregeln im Parlament drastisch verschärfte: Für eine Ablehnung wäre seitdem eine absolute Mehrheit von 361 Stimmen nötig gewesen. Am 9. Juli stimmten zwar 314 Abgeordnete gegen die Chatkontrolle (vs. 276 dafür) – eine einfache Mehrheit, aber 47 Stimmen zu wenig für die Sperrung. Damit trat Chat Control 1.0 (freiwilliges Scanning unverschlüsselter Nachrichten) durch einen Verfahrenstrick bis April 2028 in Kraft. Die erwartete Koalition aus Deutschland, Österreich, Niederlanden und Finnland verhinderte den Ratsbeschluss diesmal nicht. Quellen: closednetwork.io ('The Majority Voted No. Chat Control Passed Anyway.'), agora-intelligence.com ('Chat Control 1.0 Extended to 3 April 2028'), netzpolitik.org ('Freiwillige Chatkontrolle geht mit Verfahrenstrick durch').

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