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Stage 9 of the Tour de France 2026 (July 12, Malemort–Ussel, 185.5 km) is not won by Tadej Pogačar

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 11. July 2026 · Predicted for 12. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

74%

Pogačar leads after Stage 6 (Tourmalet solo win) by 2:42 over Vingegaard. July 13 is the first rest day — a strong strategic incentive to conserve energy. Stage 9 is not a summit finish but a hilly stage (3,300m) — typical for a breakaway win. Polymarket prices Pogačar at 92% for overall win, but that does not imply aggressive attacking on non-summit stages. Historically GC favorites rarely win the last stage before a rest day when their lead is secure.

Data basis for this prediction

TdF GC Stand 11.07.2026: Pogačar +2:42 auf Vingegaard (Cyclingnews / NBC Sports)
Etappe 9 Profil: Hügeletappe 185,5 km, 3.300 hm, kein Bergziel (FloBikes / cyclingstage.com)
Polymarket TdF-Gewinner: Pogačar 92 %, Vingegaard 5 % (Stand 11.07.2026)
Erster Ruhetag: 13. Juli 2026 (TdF offizielles Programm)

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Tim Merlier gewann Etappe 9 im Sprint (Stage verkürzt auf ~174 km wegen Hitzewelle), Pogačar gewann nicht. Quelle: Cyclingnews – 'Tour de France stage winner Merlier welcomes shortening of stage 9'; NBC Sports

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