📈 Economy · Next Week

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) beats Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus of $5.38 per share — earnings report October 29, 2026 before market open (confirmed by Eli Lilly Investor Relations or Bloomberg by October 29, 2026, 12:00 ET)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. October 2026 · Predicted for 29. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

52%

Eli Lilly reports Q3-FY2026 results before market open on October 29. Polymarket prices exactly 51% — an unusually tight market vote reflecting genuine uncertainty around the GLP-1 pipeline (tirzepatide/Mounjaro, Zepbound). Risks: manufacturing constraints, IRA price negotiations, competition from Novo Nordisk. Upside: Zepbound market share gains, Kisunla (Alzheimer's) ramp. Calibration: Polymarket anchor of 51% as primary reference; historical LLY beat frequency (~68%) supports a small premium.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: LLY Q3 FY2026 EPS-Beat — 51 % (Stand 25. Okt 2026, aktiver Markt)
MarketBeat: LLY Q3 FY2026 EPS-Konsens $5,38, Berichtsdatum 29. Okt 2026 vor Börseneröffnung (Stand 24. Okt 2026)
TipRanks/Polymarket Earnings-Übersicht: LLY unter den meistgehandelten Earnings-Märkten KW 44 (Stand 24. Okt 2026)
Seeking Alpha: Eli Lilly Q3 2026 Estimates — GLP-1-Unsicherheit drückt Beat-Wahrscheinlichkeit auf Coin-Flip (Stand 22. Okt 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

Eli Lilly berichtete am 29. Oktober 2026 vor Börseneröffnung ein non-GAAP EPS von 7,48 USD — gegenüber dem in der Vorhersage genannten Konsens von 5,38 USD eine Übertrefffung um rund 39 %. Quellen: SEC Form 8-K (investor.lilly.com), Yahoo Finance ('LLY Stock Jumps as Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates'), Investing.com ('Eli Lilly beats Q3 2026 estimates'). Haupttreiber war ein 53-prozentiges Volumenplus bei Tirzepatid (Mounjaro/Zepbound), das den Umsatz auf 24,4 Mrd. USD (+39 % YoY) hob und eine massive Guidance-Anhebung auf 91–92 Mrd. USD Jahresumsatz auslöste. Der LLY-Kurs stieg daraufhin vorbörslich um ~4 %.

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