Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) beats Q2 2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus and raises full-year FY2026 guidance (August 5, 2026, before market open; confirmed by Lilly press release)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. July 2026
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Predicted for 5. August 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Eli Lilly reports on August 5, 2026 before market open. The company is the global market leader in the GLP-1 segment (Mounjaro/Zepbound). Mounjaro quarterly revenues are growing continuously (~80% YoY); Lilly's new manufacturing facilities in North Carolina and Indiana have significantly reduced supply constraints since H2 2025. Lilly has beaten EPS consensus for five consecutive quarters and raised annual guidance four times. The Zepbound approval portfolio (obesity, heart failure) continues to expand. No Polymarket market; own estimate 79% based on structurally strong GLP-1 growth trajectory.
Data basis for this prediction
- Eli Lilly Q2 2026 Earnings Date: 5. August 2026 (TipRanks Earnings Calendar, 27.07.2026)
- Lilly Mounjaro: ~80 % YoY-Wachstum, Kapazitätsausbau NC/Indiana abgeschlossen (Lilly IR Referenz)
- Lilly: 5 aufeinanderfolgende EPS-Beats, 4× Jahresprognoseerhöhung (Analystenreferenz)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Beide Bedingungen der Vorhersage sind eingetreten. (1) EPS-Beat: Eli Lilly meldete am 5. August 2026 vor Börseneröffnung einen Non-GAAP-EPS von $8,38 gegenüber dem Konsens von $6,58 (+27,3 % Übertreffen). (2) Jahresprognose angehoben: Die FY2026-Revenue-Guidance wurde auf $85,0–87,0 Mrd. erhöht (zuvor $82–85 Mrd.), die Non-GAAP-EPS-Guidance auf $35,50–36,50 (+$2,78 Mittelpunkt). Der Umsatz stieg um 48 % auf $23,0 Mrd., getrieben von Mounjaro und Zepbound. Quellen: Lilly-Pressemitteilung via PR Newswire (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lilly-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-raises-full-year-guidance-and-highlights-continued-growth-and-pipeline-progress-302843165.html) und SEC Form 8-K (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947826000077/q226lillysalesandearningsp.htm).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.