📈 Economy · Next Month

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) beats the adjusted EPS consensus of approx. $8.89 in Q2 2026 earnings (August 5, 2026, before market open)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. July 2026 · Predicted for 5. August 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

62%

Eli Lilly reports Q2 2026 on August 5 before market open. EPS consensus is approx. $8.89/share (Meyka/TipRanks); revenue consensus is $20.5B. Structural driver: GLP-1 demand for Mounjaro (diabetes) and Zepbound (obesity) remains relentless; Lilly is market leader in the fast-growing incretin segment. Lilly has consistently beaten estimates in recent quarters. Risk factors: incretin production capacity constraints; potential US drug pricing pressure (IRA implementation). No Polymarket odds found; beat probability structurally high.

Data basis for this prediction

Meyka.com: LLY Q2 2026 Ergebnis erwartet 5. August vor Marktöffnung (meyka.com, Stand Juli 2026)
TipRanks/Meyka: EPS-Konsens Q2 2026 ca. 8,89 USD; Umsatz-Konsens 20,50 Mrd. USD
SEC EDGAR: Eli Lilly Form 8-K FY2026 Q1 – als Referenz für Wachstumstraj. (sec.gov)
Public.com/LLY: Lilly Earnings History – konsistente Beats (Stand Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Eli Lilly meldete am 5. August 2026 vor Marktöffnung ein bereinigtes EPS von 8,38 USD für Q2 2026 – was unterhalb des in der Vorhersage genannten Konsens-Schwellenwerts von ca. 8,89 USD liegt. Die Vorhersage ist daher gemäß ihrem eigenen Maßstab verfehlt. Ursache: Der in der Vorhersage verwendete Konsens-EPS (~8,89 USD, Meyka/TipRanks) war deutlich zu hoch angesetzt – der tatsächliche Analysten-Konsens lag laut Alphastreet/CNBC bei ca. 6,01–6,55 USD je Aktie. Diesen echten Konsens schlug Lilly massiv (~+30–40 %). Umsatz: 22,97 Mrd. USD (+48 % yoy), ebenfalls weit über Konsens (~20,5 Mrd. USD). Quellen: Lilly Investor Relations (investor.lilly.com), PR Newswire (prnewswire.com/news-releases/302843165), Alphastreet (news.alphastreet.com/eli-lilly-and-company-lly-q2-2026-preview-eps-est-6-55-reports-august-5), CNBC (cnbc.com/2026/08/05/eli-lilly-lly-earnings-q2-2026).

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