Donald Trump imposes Iran oil secondary tariffs of at least 25% on goods from countries continuing to import Iranian oil by July 21, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. July 2026
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Predicted for 21. July 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Trump is already escalating with OFAC secondary sanctions on Chinese entities (open Cassandra prediction due July 25) and Hormuz transit fees of 20%. The next logical lever — blanket secondary tariffs of ≥25% on goods from Iranian oil importers (China, India, Turkey, South Korea) — mirrors the 2018–2019 maximum pressure campaign. High momentum, but the 7-day implementation window limits probability due to interagency complexity.
Data basis for this prediction
- CNBC: 'U.S. crude jumps above $80 as Iran ceasefire fractures; Trump's Hormuz toll plans reignite supply fears' (14. Juli 2026)
- NPR: 'U.S. and Iran each announce retaliatory strikes in Iran, Kuwait and Bahrain' (Juni/Juli 2026)
- Al Jazeera: 'US strikes southern Iran, Tehran claims attacks on US military sites' (7. Juli 2026)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Trump verhängte 25 %-Sekundärzölle auf Länder, die weiterhin iranisches Öl importieren, bereits im Januar 2026 – das Ereignis trat damit vor dem Stichtag 21. Juli 2026 ein. Quellen: CNN Business Jan 2026; S&P Global Energy
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.